[pccgrads] Fwd: Invitation to Participate in Philip Tetlock's Hybrid Forecasting Tournament

[UW Program On Climate Change]

---------- Forwarded message ---------
From: Zachary Jacobs <zjacobs at sas.upenn.edu>
Date: Fri, Apr 29, 2022 at 2:06 PM
Subject: Invitation to Participate in Philip Tetlock's Hybrid Forecasting
Tournament
To: <beckya at uw.edu>


Hi Dr. Alexander,

I’m reaching out to you on behalf of Professor Philip Tetlock’s research
team at the University of Pennsylvania to share an opportunity to
participate in a forecasting research project involving the trajectory of
climate change, climate policy, and a number of other subject areas of
potential interest to climate researchers. I'm reaching out today to ask
whether you might be interested, and additionally if you could circulate
the opportunity to participate in this project to researchers involved with
the University of Washington Program on Climate Change, or any other
researchers who might be interested.

Project Details:

   -

   We are currently recruiting subject-matter experts to take part in a
   research project, the Hybrid Forecasting-Persuasion Tournament, where
   participants will make forecasts about potential threats to humanity in the
   next century, including artificial intelligence, biosecurity, climate
   change, and nuclear war in the short-term (<3 years), medium-term (10
   years), and long-term (30+ years). Participants will work in teams to
   make forecasts and craft high-quality explanations to persuade others to
   update their views in a more accurate direction.
   -

   Our goals in this study are to invite collaboration between experienced
   forecasters and subject-matter experts to improve overall accuracy on
   important questions about the future, test innovative ideas in forecasting
   methodology, and produce the most comprehensive and accurate set of
   forecasts about emerging technologies and risks to humanity.

Information for Participants:

   -

   Participants will be expected to spend at least 3 hours a week
   forecasting for 12-16 weeks, beginning in May.
   -

   All participants will be compensated with at least $2,000 and up to
   $10,000, depending on level of accuracy and engagement with the tournament.
   -

   Potential participants can be referred to this posting
   <https://docs.google.com/document/d/15NLDoILtL_jK0X1nLDkWoqAnfAdxOfBvRKxSNU4EpjU/edit>
   for more information and sample forecasting questions from the tournament.

Researchers interested in participating should fill out this interest form
<https://upenn.co1.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_6mzScMaaWUIhSrc> by May 13th.

Please let me know if you have any questions, and I'm looking forward to
hearing from you!

Thanks so much and take care,
Zach Jacobs
zjacobs at sas.upenn.edu


-- 
Becky Alexander
Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences <https://atmos.uw.edu/>
Director, Program on Climate Change <https://pcc.uw.edu/>
University of Washington
408 ATG Building / Box 351640
Seattle, WA 98195-1640
beckya at uw.edu
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/blog/beckya/


-- 
"The University of Washington acknowledges the Coast Salish peoples of this
land, the land which touches the shared waters of all tribes and bands
within the Suquamish, Tulalip and Muckleshoot nations."



@uwpcc    pcc.uw.edu   uwpcc at uw.edu
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