<div dir="ltr"><div class="gmail_quote"><div dir="ltr"><div class="gmail_quote"><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr">---------- Forwarded message ---------<br>From: <strong class="gmail_sendername" dir="auto">Zachary Jacobs</strong> <span dir="auto"><<a href="mailto:zjacobs@sas.upenn.edu" target="_blank">zjacobs@sas.upenn.edu</a>></span><br>Date: Fri, Apr 29, 2022 at 2:06 PM<br>Subject: Invitation to Participate in Philip Tetlock's Hybrid Forecasting Tournament<br>To:  <<a href="mailto:beckya@uw.edu" target="_blank">beckya@uw.edu</a>><br></div><br><br><div dir="ltr">Hi Dr. Alexander,<div><br></div><div>I’m reaching out to you on behalf of Professor Philip Tetlock’s research team at the University of Pennsylvania to share an opportunity to participate in a forecasting research project involving the trajectory of climate change, climate policy, and a number of other subject areas of potential interest to climate researchers. I'm reaching out today to ask whether you might be interested, and additionally if you could circulate the opportunity to participate in this project to researchers involved with the University of Washington Program on Climate Change, or any other researchers who might be interested.<div><br></div><div><span id="m_2101024449566159936m_-2055182908064862593gmail-m_-8682225215342635469gmail-m_-7220152183566264100gmail-m_815551139191623936gmail-docs-internal-guid-80353b0c-7fff-8d09-a223-ede9aa634fba"><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.656;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Project Details:</span></p><ul style="margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:0px"><li dir="ltr" style="margin-left:11pt;list-style-type:disc;font-family:Arial;background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:10pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline">We are currently recruiting subject-matter experts to take part in a research project, the Hybrid Forecasting-Persuasion Tournament, where participants will make forecasts about potential threats to humanity in the next century, including artificial intelligence, biosecurity, climate change, and nuclear war in the short-term (<3 years), medium-term (10 years), and long-term (30+ years). </span><span style="background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline">Participants will work in teams to make forecasts and craft high-quality explanations to persuade others to update their views in a more accurate direction. </span></p></li><li dir="ltr" style="margin-left:11pt;list-style-type:disc;font-family:Arial;background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:10pt"><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline">Our goals in this study are to invite collaboration between experienced forecasters and subject-matter experts to improve overall accuracy on important questions about the future, test innovative ideas in forecasting methodology, and produce the most comprehensive and accurate set of forecasts about emerging technologies and risks to humanity.</span></p></li></ul><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Information for Participants:</span></p><ul style="margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:0px"><li dir="ltr" style="margin-left:11pt;list-style-type:disc;font-family:Arial;background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:10pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline">Participants will be expected to spend at least 3 hours a week forecasting for 12-16 weeks, beginning in May.</span></p></li><li dir="ltr" style="margin-left:11pt;list-style-type:disc;font-family:Arial;background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline">All participants will be compensated with at least $2,000 and up to $10,000, depending on level of accuracy and engagement with the tournament.</span></p></li><li dir="ltr" style="margin-left:11pt;list-style-type:disc;font-family:Arial;background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:10pt"><span style="background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline">Potential participants can be referred to </span><a href="https://docs.google.com/document/d/15NLDoILtL_jK0X1nLDkWoqAnfAdxOfBvRKxSNU4EpjU/edit" style="text-decoration-line:none" target="_blank"><span style="background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;text-decoration-line:underline;vertical-align:baseline">this posting</span></a><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline"> for more information and sample forecasting questions from the tournament.</span></p></li></ul><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.656;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Researchers interested in participating should </span><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">fill out this</span><a href="https://upenn.co1.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_6mzScMaaWUIhSrc" style="text-decoration-line:none" target="_blank"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap"> </span><span style="font-family:Arial;background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;text-decoration-line:underline;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">interest form</span></a><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap"> by May 13th</span><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">.</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.656;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Please let me know if you have any questions, and I'm looking forward to hearing from you!</span></p><br><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-family:Arial;background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Thanks so much and take care,</span></p></span>Zach Jacobs</div><div><a href="mailto:zjacobs@sas.upenn.edu" target="_blank">zjacobs@sas.upenn.edu</a></div></div></div>
</div><br clear="all"><div><br></div>-- <br><div dir="ltr" data-smartmail="gmail_signature"><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div>Becky Alexander</div><div>Professor, <a href="https://atmos.uw.edu/" target="_blank">Department of Atmospheric Sciences</a></div><div>Director, <a href="https://pcc.uw.edu/" target="_blank">Program on Climate Change</a></div><div>University of Washington</div><div>408 ATG Building / Box 351640</div><div>Seattle, WA 98195-1640</div><div><a href="mailto:beckya@uw.edu" target="_blank">beckya@uw.edu</a></div><div><a href="http://www.atmos.washington.edu/blog/beckya/" target="_blank">http://www.atmos.washington.edu/blog/beckya/<br></a></div></div></div></div></div></div></div>
</div><br clear="all"><div><br></div>-- <br><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_signature" data-smartmail="gmail_signature"><div dir="ltr"><div><div><font size="1" face="tahoma, sans-serif"><span style="color:rgb(61,61,61)">"The University of Washington acknowledges the Coast Salish peoples of this land, the land which touches the shared waters of all tribes and bands within the Suquamish, Tulalip and Muckleshoot nations."</span><br></font></div><div><br></div><div><img src="https://ci3.googleusercontent.com/mail-sig/AIorK4xz-hsjj842PzVxKDgUOLIhLvlkTUzBRCR0ta2uPMo_8kUTY1VklXBZ1y3qcYA8AU0Ua-72Rpo"><br></div><div><br></div><div><font face="georgia, serif">@uwpcc    <a href="http://pcc.uw.edu" target="_blank">pcc.uw.edu</a>   <a href="mailto:uwpcc@uw.edu" target="_blank">uwpcc@uw.edu</a></font><br></div></div></div></div></div>