[Tweeters] Someone's Spoiling the Story - and the Fun.

Wayne Weber contopus at telus.net
Sat Feb 6 22:25:43 PST 2021


I know 3 of the 4 authors of this study. However, the study is obviously flawed, and the conclusions are demonstrably false.

Any of us who have been birding for 20, 30 years or more can think of dozens of cases of the Patagonia Picnic Table Effect (PPTE), in which the discovery of one rarity led to the discovery of one or more additional rarities in the same location or nearby localities.

Perhaps the authors were asking the wrong question. It seems like they were asking whether an individual birder who travelled to see a rarity had a better chance of finding another rarity than if he had stayed home. That, clearly, is not the case. The reason that when one long-staying rarity is found, others tend to be found nearby, is because of the vast increase in number of birders in the area of the rarity. The chances are high that SOMEONE will find another rarity, or two, or three, and that birders who arrive later may have a chance to see several rarities rather than one. It doesn’t happen with every mega-rarity, but it happens with a large percentage of them.

Perhaps part of the problem is that the authors only counted the discovery of an additional mega-rarity as evidence of the PPTE, rather than regional or local rarities, which is what subsequent rarities usually turn out to be. It’s all in how you define a rarity.

The Patagonia Picnic Table Effect is a real, well-documented phenomenon, and this badly-flawed study does not prove otherwise.

Wayne C. Weber

Delta, BC

contopus at telus.net

From: Tweeters [mailto:tweeters-bounces at mailman11.u.washington.edu] On Behalf Of dick
Sent: Saturday, February 06, 2021 2:07 AM
Subject: [Tweeters] Someone's Spoiling the Story - and the Fun.

Maybe Neah Bay is over-rated?


Sent from my Verizon, Samsung Galaxy smartphone

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