[pccgrads] Special Paleoclimate Seminar Tuesday Oct 28th-1230 in MSB123

[Miriam Bertram via Pcc_all via pccgrads]

Hi all,

We have a guest in the School of Oceanography this week - Jordan Landers, a
graduate student of Julian Emile-Geay at the University of Southern
California. We are planning to host her for a one-off paleoclimate seminar
at *12:30 PM on Tuesday the 28th in MSB 123*. Please join us if you have
interest in creative quantitative approaches to complicated problems in
time series analysis! :)

Best,
Mo

*Nothing like the sun?: A causal examination of the solar influence on
Holocene climate*

Variations in Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) have long been hypothesized
to influence global mean surface temperature (GMST) on centennial to
millennial timescales, but empirical evidence for this relationship
has remained elusive. Focusing on the pre-industrial Holocene, when
anthropogenic influences were minimal, we apply Convergent Cross
Mapping (CCM), a causal-inference method, to explore the link between
solar variability and climate. We analyze a number of combinations,
pairing temperature targets (a global mean surface reconstruction and
various Greenland ice core records) with two TSI reconstructions,
across a broad range of timescale configurations. We detect a weak but
consistently significant solar influence at the global scale, but a
more nuanced pattern of influence among the high-latitude records.
This contrast suggests that solar forcing was not the dominant driver
of Holocene climate fluctuations at the global scale, but its
influence is still detectable and may provide a useful benchmark for
evaluating whether models correctly capture the nonlinear dynamics of
Earth's climate.
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