[pccgrads] Lapenta on "The NCEP Production Suite: Plans and Perspectives from the "Tip of the Spear"" today 5/13 at 3:30

UW PCC uwpcc at uw.edu
Fri May 13 14:50:18 PDT 2016

Colloquium Tea is at 3:00 p.m. in ATG 400.

Atmospheric Sciences Colloquium, ATM S 520: Dr. William Lapenta
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Friday, May 13, 2016


3:30 pm - 4:50 pm PDT

Campus location

Johnson Hall (JHN) <http://www.washington.edu/maps/?JHN>

Campus room


Event types

Academics, Lectures/Seminars


Speaker: Dr. William M. Lapenta, Director, National Centers for
Environmental Prediction, NOAA
Title: The NCEP Production Suite: Plans and Perspectives from the "Tip of
the Spear"
Location: JHN 075
Coordinator: Prof. Dargan Frierson (dargan at atmos.washington.edu)

Abstract: The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
operational modeling suite at the National Centers for Environmental
Prediction (NCEP) provides information on the future state of weather,
short-term and long-term climate, ecosystems, the ocean, and thus
significantly contribute to the decision making process for individuals
through policy makers, and for sectors ranging from water resources to
financial markets. In addition, the modeling systems directly support the
NWS mission to provide weather, water, and climate data, forecasts and
warnings for the protection of life and property and enhancement of the
national economy.

There are numerous strategic and technical factors that must be taken into
account when planning the evolution of the production suite. The National
Weather Service (NWS) imperative to build a Weather-Ready Nation (WRN) is
about building community resiliency in the face of increasing vulnerability
to extreme weather. Therefore, the foundational operational numerical
guidance system must support the WRN initiative. Global modeling systems
are now being run operationally at resolutions approaching 10km. Regional
systems are running operationally at 3km and lower and are being applied to
convective predictability and severe weather. Advanced data assimilation
techniques are being applied on global and regional scales. Demands are
building for skillful outlooks in the week 3 and 4 time frame that will
require coupled atmosphere and ocean global systems executed in ensemble

The presentation will provide a brief overview of the current production
suite structure, forcing factors that will influence the future, and the
plan for future development for the modeling and data assimilation systems.
The seminar will also provide an update on the technical and strategic
review of the NCEP production suite performed by a subcommittee of the
existing University Corporation for Atmospheric Research Community Advisory
Committee for NCEP (UCACN). Specifically, the subcommittee is the Model
Advisory Committee (UMAC) composed of subject matter experts. The primary
goal of the UMAC is to provide recommendations on the strategic holistic
evolution of the production suite over the next 5 to 10 years.
Recommendations will also be used to inform the revision of the integrated
NOAA modeling strategy that crosses the NOAA line offices.



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