[pccgrads] Mike McPhaden on El Niño: seminar Weds 12.30 OSB 425

UW PCC uwpcc at uw.edu
Mon Sep 28 08:20:04 PDT 2015


The fall seminar series in Physical Oceanography (and naturally the atmosphere above) kicks off on the first day of the Quarter



12.30 Weds 30 September Room 425 Ocean Sciences

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With …



“Playing hide and seek with El Niño”

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Prof. Michael McPhaden, NOAA PMEL / UW​



Abstract:

A major El Niño is under development in the tropical Pacific and is expected to peak in late 2015 to early 2016. Forecasts from early in 2015 had not predicted an El Niño this year and yet it has already reached surprising intensity. It follows on the heels of a much-­‐ anticipated strong El Niño that was expected to occur in 2014 but never materialized.

​ ​This presentation will describe evolution of the ocean and atmosphere system in the tropical Pacific over the past two years, discuss the physical processes involved in El Niño’s erratic behavior, and consider the question of how well seasonal forecasts of El Niño development verified against observations during this period. Potential impacts on seasonal climate in the coming months, both globally and in the Pacific Northwest, will also be discussed.

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