[pccgrads] FW: Applied Physics Laboratory Seminar, Tuesday, September 22, 10:30 AM

UW PCC uwpcc at uw.edu
Fri Sep 18 11:46:40 PDT 2015



Applied Physics Laboratory Seminar Series -- Summer 2015

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>>>>>> APL Special Seminar <<<<<<
>>>>>> NOTE: Day and Time <<<<<<

Speaker: Christopher Castro
Department of Atmospheric Sciences
University of Arizona
Tucson, AZ

Title: THE USE OF REGIONAL ATMOSPHERIC MODELING FOR IMPROVING WEATHER
PREDICTIONS AND CLIMATE PROJECTIONS IN
THE NORTH AMERICAN MONSOON REGION

Time: Tuesday, September 22, 10:30 AM <--------------- NOTE: Day and
Time

(Coffee/Tea, Cookies and Conversation at 10:00AM)

Place: APL Hardisty Conference Center

Abstract:

This presentation overviews two of my current research themes with respect
to regional modeling of the North American monsoon:

Short term numerical weather forecasts: We use precipitable water from a
network of GPS sensors in northwest Mexico that was active during the summer
of 2013. These meteorological data are unique because: 1) the sensors were
placed in locations where there are almost no radiosonde observations and
2) the characterization of water
vpaor is important for the simulation of precipitation, for example in the
Sierra Madre Occidental or the Gulf of California. With these data, we are
investigating two scientific objectives in the context of regional
atmospheric modeling: 1) how to improve physical aspects of organized
convection in complex terrain and 2) how to assimilate GPS-derived
precipitable water from the sensor network to evaluate its effect on
short-term historical weather forecasts.

Future extreme event projection: In the context of a funded project from the
Strategic Environmental Research and Development program (SERDP), we are
investigating the potential changes in extreme weather during the North
American monsoon in association with climate change. Considering sources of
long-term dynamically downscaled data, specifically a global atmospheric
reanalysis and global climate change models from CMIP3 and CMIP5
experiments, we objectively identify the severe-weather event days based on
thermodynamic criteria and them simulate these days at a
convective-permitting grid spacing. The results from the downscaled
reanalysis appear to be a good proxy for observed changes in monsoon severe
weather over the past sixty years. Based on the downscaled reanalysis and
observed precipitation data, we find that atmospheric thermodynamic
conditions are becoming more favorable for convection but with less frequent
synoptic-scale triggering mechanisms. Therefore there is a tendency for
monsoon convection to be generally more phased-locked to the terrain.
Though organized convective events are less frequent, the precipitation
associated with them is more intense. We are finding the same types of
behavior in the dynamically downscaled CMIP3 and CMIP5 models.

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UNIVERSITY STUDENTS, STAFF AND FACULTY WELCOME!

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Enter main (east) entrance to the Henderson Hall, and ask at desk or follow
signs to the Conference Center on the 6th floor.

To request disability accommodations, please contact the Office of the ADA
Coordinator; voice: 543-6450, E-mail: access\@u.washington.edu

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